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Rating: More Details: The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World @Amazon The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World @aStore |
Interesting memoir of former Fed Chairman beleaguered by current developments ![]()
In light of the credit crisis, many blame former US Federal reserve chairman Alan Greenspan for the current malaise in the world economy. However, the man himself chooses to describe it as a once in century type event. Caught in the debate is this memoir of his which went into print barely months after credit bubble burst.
Greenspan unquestionably played a key role in how the US economy as well as the world economy has panned out for over the last five decades. Bearing that in mind this book deserves respect and it does not disappoint. It is engaging and interesting. The author clearly acknowledges that he conveys his understanding of the world in context of his own experiences.
Essentially, the book dwells on Greenspan's illustrious career in the first half and his thoughts on the economy and monetary policy in the second. A trawl through Greenspan's career is highly readable containing bits about how he found his way into central banking and dealt with not just a succession of US presidents from Ford to Bush, but incoming and outgoing administrations as well. It is packed with anecdotes about anything in government circles from Greenspan meeting Margaret Thatcher to conversing with Rush Limbaugh about the Mexican crisis.
From there on to the latter stages of the book, one gradually gets an insight into the former Fed Chairman's thoughts, the influence of Adam Smith on him and his vivid description of the "failure of Keynesian economic models." For those claiming Greenspan had a preference for keeping rates artificially low, there's plenty on ammunition as he admits his liking for "cutting interest rates to make it easier for people to borrow and spend." However, in his defence, Greenspan explains how he kept the recession short via low interest rates following the dotcom bubble and kept them low until he saw an economic recovery.
His problem was that by the time the Fed raised the rates it was already too late and seeds of the current economic malaise had been sown. There is a bit of bravado in his writing which does unravel during current market conditions. For instance, he notes: "Many economists credit central bank monetary policy as the key factor in the last decade's reduction in inflation worldwide." With both economists and central bankers equally foxed and staring at deflation, such statements now seem to be a bit over the top.
Clinton and Greenspan both share some of the blame for the current crisis. This emerges in Chapter 7 of the book which is a fascinating read. Throughout the narrative Greenspan endorses repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act by Clinton in 1999 which ensured complete separation of between commercial banks and investment banks and so began the cycle of high risk taking for high returns.
Furthermore, Clinton's policy of beefing up the Community Reinvestment Act (1977) dwelling on relaxation of rules for mortgage lending fanned the subprime market, which hitherto accounted for less than 5% of all borrowing but rose to 30% by the time Greenspan penned the final thoughts for this book.
In summation, the author perhaps wanted this book to be the celebration of his career. Regrettably, it has rather become an insight into what and where monetary policymakers, bankers and those in financial circles tripped-up.
This should not discount Greenspan's work and his life in public service. He was player in what was to unfold and for the readers he provides a vivid account for them to draw their own inferences. I feel it is a decent book. However, it's prudent to mention that I did find myself frequently disagreeing with the great man's take on the World Economy.
Fascinating insight that reveals a fundamental flaw in economic thinking ![]()
The first part of the book takes you through Greenspan's working life and reminds us that financial crises occur rather frequently and although circumstances change two factors appear to be constant: the greed of the financial community and their sheep like behaviour in following others into, for example, SE Asia prompting the financial crisis there in the 90's or high tech stock driving the dot.com bubble. No surprise then that the current crisis (a level 5 crisis according to the definition provided early in this book) is a consequence of reckless pursuit of high risk investment.
In the second part of the book Greenspan shares his thoughts on economic theory across a range of subjects (and in doing so loses some of the writing fluency from the first part as too much technical jargon is employed - losing a star in the process!). In this section he reveals, unwittingly, a fundamental flaw in his economic thinking. Greenspan's view is regulation needs to be minimised to allow markets to grow most effectively and that control in the market will come from self interest. The fundamental flaw is the self interest of the CEO, who sets the strategy for a company, is not necessarily the same as the self interest of the company i.e. the CEO gets rich while the company goes bust (RBS...!).
Overall a great read - full of stacks of relevant and valuable information.
Civilized but not bland ![]()
Alan Greenspan appeared to me quite boring, behind his thick glasses and cryptic BoardSpeak. Then came this book to prove me wrong. I was a Clinton fan and as much as I l respected Clinton's work as president his autobio came as an utter disappointment. Exactly the opposite happened with AG. The book is an impassionate narrative of 60 years of economic and political history through the eyes of a man who witnessed these events from up close. What comes through is his fervent belief in the ideals of a liberal economy and what is more important is that the man is a sceptic with a good grasp of ideas outside the field of economics. This came to me as a suprise since I pictured AG as a man engrossed in numbers, oblivious to ideas or developments in other areas. His writing style is elegant making this a highly readable book. There is always discussion of issues of economic policy and macroeconomics but this is done in a manner friendly to the layman and attractive to those who wish to gain an inside look into the workings of the american as well as the global economy. What I appreciated the most throughout this book, aside its elegant style, is AG's civility when expressing opinions about other people even when these people have not measured up to the public's expectations (e.g. Nixon). Finally, I admired his ability to maintain his integrity, standing up for what he believed in no matter the pressure (e.g. G.Bush). I wish we in Greece had an AG to help us through these tumultuous times.
An Economic Geek.... ![]()
A fascinating and informative book.
Alan Greenspan comes across very much as a "Techie" / "Geek" with a very academic, data orientated view of the world and Economic policy.
You won't find any great vision here but a really fascinating view of the "real world" application of Economic Policy.
While Greenspan is clearly an "uber-master" of his subject, I couldn't help occasionaly raising an eyebrow at some of his views - thinking that maybe here lies some of the root cause of the troubles we suffer today.
A good companion book to read with this is the "History of Money" by Niall Ferguson - although he has nothing like the depth of Knowledge of Greenspan.
And the Prognosis ? The great moderation of Inflation and improvement in living standards of the last decade is a consequence of a period of rapid Globalisation involving China whihc is now comig to an end. Expect the reurn of (moderate) Inflation. Sounds a bit like "Back to the Seventies...."
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