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A Book to Shatter Illusions
One of those rare books that could change the way you think about life, the universe, and everything!
For example, we try to make sense of history by adding an after-the-fact narrative that attempts to explain what was really happening; but, says the author, we're fooling ourselves. There will be too much we don't know about what was going on (our facts are selective and often biased). If you had the chance to go back in time and "do it again", you'd still screw it up; but in a different way this time.
And much, much more.
The work is set at a reasonable high level, and one or two chapters I'm going to reread with a coffee cup rather than a wine glass. But the author comes across as such an interesting and witty companion, that I was happy to stay with him.
A philosophical guide for life
The key message is clear: reality hides big surprises, which every now and then are bound to pop up. We are unable to correctly comprehend the odds and consequence of such large events.
In science and finance we have developed sophisticated modeeling and forecasting techniques that over-rely on conventional probability theory and use the "bell curve" also when this is not really applicable.
As the bell curve significantly underestimates probability of large deviations, the very sophisticated models and the experts that purport them tell us fundamentally flawed stories (forecasts). The decisions that we take based on such stories are thus inherently prone to the occurrence such large deviations.
Unexpected large deviations can affect us both positively and negatively. The author also gives simple and clear guidance on how to manage and even take advantage of the positive large deviations, while hedging out the large, negative ones.
If you can dispense of the sometimes condescending style of NNT, I think this book belongs to the collection of classics in philosophy of science.
One of the most original ideas I've read in a while
This book portrays one of the most original ideas I've read in a while. He does not seem to give very concrete answers to people who try to grasp the black swan concept, so I'll try to summarize it: robustness. He is basically advocating, that people should create robustness in their environment, be it investments or something else. Do not expose yourself to one, possibly game changing event. Try to limit the impact of highly irregular, big events in your environment.
Wonderful
Not at all irritating. Wonderful. Illuminating. Any thinking person is going to say, huh? Come on Nassim, 100% original in every detail? Perhaps not EVERY detail. But it's difficult not to enjoy the intellectual struggle of Nassim v entrenched but wrong ideas.
Ruffling a black swan's feathers 
This is an irritating book. It is littered with exasperating statements such as "I don't particularly care about the usual...indeed the normal is often irrelevant". Historians like to "believe in the predictable, small incremental progression". That may come as a surprise to the chroniclers of revolutions, world wars, plagues and megalomaniacs like Stalin. People who make modest advances such as installing locks on cockpit doors always get forgotten. But what about Samuel Plimsoll, Victorian inventor of the load-line on merchant ships?
During the sub-prime crisis and ensuing credit crunch, Taleb's ideas looked prescient. But, even in the financial markets the normal has begun to reassert itself.
A self-styled obsessive, Taleb evidently relishes his role as a contrarian. Maybe he is irritating to a purpose. For my part, I don't see it. In fact Taleb's thesis is broken-backed: discovery of black swans was indeed unexpected, yet, ironically, had scarcely any impact on the course of the world.
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If you've not read <a href=”http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141034599?ie=UTF8&tag=thestuinv-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=0141034599″>The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable</a><img ...
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The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable - aNobii
The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable Blog this item. The Black Swan; The Impact of the Highly Improbable; By Nassim Nicholas Taleb; (106) | Paperback | 0141034599 | Details ...
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test
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141034599?ie=UTF8&tag=blog009-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=0141034599 Nogal mooi. <br /> <img src=”http://www.assoc-amazon.co.uk/s/noscript?tag=blog009-21″ ...
http://blog.vossestein.com/2009/11/04/test/
our inability to understand the exponential function
if this is of interest, you may want to take a look at the black swan (http://www.amazon.de/black-swan-impact-highly-improbable/dp/0141034599/ref=sr_1_1?ie=utf8&s=books-intl-de&qid=1219042639&sr=1-1) by nassim nicholas taleb. ...
http://vowe.net/archives/009802.html#c038631
re: [air-l] credentials
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/the_black_swan_(film) > >http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0034522/ > >. ah, no. i had this in mind: http://www.amazon.co.uk/black-swan-impact-highly-improbable/dp/0141034599/. gordo. – “think feynman”///////// ...
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ブラック・スワンのせいか、べき乗則、複雑系、非線型関係の本が売れてます
そういえば、藤井裕久財務大臣の発言で為替が一気に円高、亀井静香郵政・ 金融担当大臣の発言で金融株暴落状態。マーケットはほんと面白いわ。大損 こいてるけど。^^; http://www.amazon.co.jp/exec/obidos/ASIN/0141034599/showshotcorne-22/ ...
http://iiyu.asablo.jp/blog/2009/09/29/4603732
神永正博著「不透明な時代を見抜く「統計思考力」」
http://www.amazon.co.jp/exec/obidos/asin/0141034599/showshotcorne-22/ the black swan: the impact of the highly improbable (ペーパーバック) nassim nicholas taleb (著) の「ブラック・スワン」のことだと思うけど。日本語版、いつ出るんだろうね ...
http://iiyu.asablo.jp/blog/2009/04/23/4260454
発売日: 不明 | 価格: | 平均評価: 評価無し | 納期:
| 発売日: 不明 | 価格: | 平均評価: 評価無し | 納期:
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foorum: maailm ja mõnda > parim raamat
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