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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Penguin Search Penguin by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Search Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Customer Reviews:
The Black Buzzard
Some say you can't judge a book by its cover.
But I say thats just wrong especially when the price is quite clearly displayed.
I can certainly say without a shadow of a doubt that it was worth every penny I paid.
I was disappointed though there wasnt a chapter on Trans-Gender Circumference, a key factor in all good reference books of this type, but hey, this is only a mild quibble.
All in all, a good read, and certainly better than the last book I read which incidentally was The Flacid Baboon, by Harriet Duff. Sensibly priced on Amazon too!
Unbelievable book 
This is a philosophical book that really makes one think really hard. In this book, the author argues that we place way too much emphasis on past events with the hope that we can predict what will happen in the future. I guess we will never get tired of trying to guess what will happen next. Wall Street operates on the assumption that it has a crystal ball. No one really has any idea of why the markets moved up or down in a single day, but we try to find reasons for it. He argues that most of the big events in the world are unpredictable and he calls them Black Swans. But these kinds of events are what really matters. No one could have predicted the September 11th attack and still it had huge importance to our lives.
This is an unbelievable book. Now that I read it, I am going to read Fooled by Randomness by the same author.
- Mariusz Skonieczny, author of Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market
A Book to Shatter Illusions
One of those rare books that could change the way you think about life, the universe, and everything!
For example, we try to make sense of history by adding an after-the-fact narrative that attempts to explain what was really happening; but, says the author, we're fooling ourselves. There will be too much we don't know about what was going on (our facts are selective and often biased). If you had the chance to go back in time and "do it again", you'd still screw it up; but in a different way this time.
And much, much more.
The work is set at a reasonable high level, and one or two chapters I'm going to reread with a coffee cup rather than a wine glass. But the author comes across as such an interesting and witty companion, that I was happy to stay with him.
A philosophical guide for life
The key message is clear: reality hides big surprises, which every now and then are bound to pop up. We are unable to correctly comprehend the odds and consequence of such large events.
In science and finance we have developed sophisticated modeeling and forecasting techniques that over-rely on conventional probability theory and use the "bell curve" also when this is not really applicable.
As the bell curve significantly underestimates probability of large deviations, the very sophisticated models and the experts that purport them tell us fundamentally flawed stories (forecasts). The decisions that we take based on such stories are thus inherently prone to the occurrence such large deviations.
Unexpected large deviations can affect us both positively and negatively. The author also gives simple and clear guidance on how to manage and even take advantage of the positive large deviations, while hedging out the large, negative ones.
If you can dispense of the sometimes condescending style of NNT, I think this book belongs to the collection of classics in philosophy of science.
One of the most original ideas I've read in a while
This book portrays one of the most original ideas I've read in a while. He does not seem to give very concrete answers to people who try to grasp the black swan concept, so I'll try to summarize it: robustness. He is basically advocating, that people should create robustness in their environment, be it investments or something else. Do not expose yourself to one, possibly game changing event. Try to limit the impact of highly irregular, big events in your environment.
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Economics for the real world
General Reading 2010
GRIJZE MASSA
Pop Science books
Decisions, statistics and probability (in that order).
Eclectic and fine
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A variety of reading matter
A mixed bag of good reads
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
If you've not read <a href=”http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141034599?ie=UTF8&tag=thestuinv-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=0141034599″>The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable</a><img ...
http://www.stupid-investor.co.uk/2009/11/nassim-nicholas-taleb/
Review: The Black Swan by Alexander Norlund-Matthiessen
Title: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable; Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb; ISBN: 0141034599; Rating: Not rated. I'd like to invite my readers to perform an amusing experiment. First, search the web for a page outlining ...
http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/aknorlund-matthiessen/entry/review_the_black/
our inability to understand the exponential function
if this is of interest, you may want to take a look at the black swan (http://www.amazon.de/black-swan-impact-highly-improbable/dp/0141034599/ref=sr_1_1?ie=utf8&s=books-intl-de&qid=1219042639&sr=1-1) by nassim nicholas taleb. ...
http://vowe.net/archives/009802.html#c038631
test
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141034599?ie=UTF8&tag=blog009-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=0141034599 Nogal mooi. <br /> <img src=”http://www.assoc-amazon.co.uk/s/noscript?tag=blog009-21″ ...
http://blog.vossestein.com/2009/11/04/test/
eNidhi India: Book review: The Associate by John Grisham
Very good to read this page. Readers can see more or buy here in India: http://www.thestorez.com/black-swan-the-the-impact-of-the-high-taleb-nassim-nicholas-0141034599-9780141034591.html. Thursday, October 08, 2009 2:29:00 PM ...
http://www.enidhi.net/2009/09/associate-john-grisham-book-review.html
re: [air-l] credentials
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/the_black_swan_(film) > >http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0034522/ > >. ah, no. i had this in mind: http://www.amazon.co.uk/black-swan-impact-highly-improbable/dp/0141034599/. gordo. – “think feynman”///////// ...
http://air-l-archive.aoir.org/?p=629
ブラック・スワンのせいか、べき乗則、複雑系、非線型関係の本が売れてます
そういえば、藤井裕久財務大臣の発言で為替が一気に円高、亀井静香郵政・ 金融担当大臣の発言で金融株暴落状態。マーケットはほんと面白いわ。大損 こいてるけど。^^; http://www.amazon.co.jp/exec/obidos/ASIN/0141034599/showshotcorne-22/ ...
http://iiyu.asablo.jp/blog/2009/09/29/4603732
神永正博著「不透明な時代を見抜く「統計思考力」」
http://www.amazon.co.jp/exec/obidos/asin/0141034599/showshotcorne-22/ the black swan: the impact of the highly improbable (ペーパーバック) nassim nicholas taleb (著) の「ブラック・スワン」のことだと思うけど。日本語版、いつ出るんだろうね ...
http://iiyu.asablo.jp/blog/2009/04/23/4260454
発売日: 不明 | 価格: | 平均評価: 評価無し | 納期:
| 発売日: 不明 | 価格: | 平均評価: 評価無し | 納期:
http://www.amagle.com/browse/0141034599/
foorum: maailm ja mõnda > parim raamat
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http://www.tarkinvestor.ee/foorum/viewtopic.php?t=1315
